For the sake of analysis, this diary will presume, based on today’s news report, that Michigan will vote on Tuesday, January 15 – one week after New Hampshire.
Regardless of where Iowa and Nevada shoehorn themselves into the process, this move would make Michigan more important than either.
The biggest consequence: the early primaries just became many times more expensive, to the tune of millions of dollars.
It also gives four important "wild card" groups of voters an early place in line:
- Independent voters
- Union members.
- Black Americans
- University students
Each of the leading Democratic candidates – Clinton, Obama and Edwards – have few unique advantages over each other in Michigan and each face many uncertainties.
A look at the voting history in Democratic presidential caucuses from 1984 to 2004 provides some clues as to what could happen, but keep in mind that this will be a primary, and that even Michigan political operatives will be on unfamiliar terrain because of it.
Still, Michigan may now determine how South Carolina, California and other big states go after it.
More at the jump…
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